## Probabilistic N-k Failure-Identification for Power Systems

Kaarthik Sundar, Carleton Coffrin, Harsha Nagarajan, Russell Bent
### Abstract

This paper considers a probabilistic generalization of the N-k failure-identification problem in power transmission networks, where the probability of failure of each component in the network is known a priori and the goal of the problem is to find a set of k components that maximizes disruption to the system loads weighted by the probability of simultaneous failure of the k components. The resulting problem is formulated as a bilevel mixed-integer nonlinear program. Convex relaxations, linear approximations, and heuristics are developed to obtain feasible solutions that are close to the optimum. A general cutting-plane algorithm is proposed to solve the convex relaxation and linear approximations of the N-k problem. Extensive numerical results corroborate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms on small-, medium-, and large-scale test instances; the test instances include the IEEE 14-bus system, the IEEE single-area and three-area RTS96 systems, the IEEE 118-bus system, the WECC 240-bus test system, the 1354-bus PEGASE system, and the 2383-bus Polish winter-peak test system.